Threats, Errors & Mild Panic

DEEP DIVE

What Do Pilots Even Do..?

It could be said that pilots "sit around drinking coffee and complaining about their roster and the company."

(And mostly, we'd be right.)

But a more professional answer? That goes something like this:

Pilots manage threats and errors to avoid undesired aircraft states.

Great. And the easiest way to do that?

Don't go flying.

Problem solved! Aviation incidents drop to zero. Nobel Prize, please 😆

Since that approach doesn't pay back the training loans, we have to accept some level of risk every time we push back. The trick is keeping that risk manageable.

That’s where Threat & Error Management (TEM) comes in.

TEM

⚠️ Threats: When It's Not Your Fault

A threat is anything that makes your job harder but sits outside your control.

Bad weather? Threat.
Slot delay? Threat.
Late inbound aircraft, dodgy MEL, runway change at 6,000 feet? All threats.

They show up everywhere. Some flights you get one or two. Others, they arrive like they've booked a group discount - usually during your line check.

The Three Threat Flavours

In general there are three types of threat.

🧠 Anticipated Threats

These are the ones you can plan for.

Weather, MEL items, complex procedures, terrain, crosswinds, busy airspace.

Handle them in your brief and they're manageable. Ignore them and they'll find you mid-sector at exactly the wrong moment.

🤔 Unexpected Threats

These are the curveballs.

System failures, ATC reroutes, passenger dramas, last-minute runway changes that trash your whole setup.

You might not see them coming, but you still have to manage them - usually while juggling six other things.

🤯 Latent Threats

The worst kind.

These hide in the background: fatigue, poor design, incomplete training, engineering or manufacturing errors, crew pairings that just aren't clicking.

They lurk until conditions are perfect... then they bite.

If you’re struggling to identify threats it can be worth using a threat matrix. Your airline might provide one or you can download one below.

It’s not an exhaustive list but might help you get started.

Don’t forget the most important thing.

Once you’ve identified a threat - You must talk about how to avoid it! More on that later…

MORE TEM

❌ Errors: When It Actually Is Your Fault

If threats are the world making your job harder, errors are when you make it harder yourself.

Most aren't dramatic. But even small ones, left unmanaged, can nudge you toward something nasty.

An error is any action (or inaction) that:

• Deviates from what was expected

• Reduces safety margins

• Increases the chance of a bad outcome

The Four Error Types

1. Action Slip

You knew what to do, but your hand disagreed.

Pulling speedbrake instead of flaps. Selecting speed instead of heading on the FCU (bet you've done this one).

The plan was fine, the execution went wrong.

2. Memory Lapse

You forget entirely.

Missing a checklist, forgetting to activate approach phase, losing track when the cabin calls at the wrong moment.

Nothing was done wrong - it just wasn't done at all.

3. Rule-Based Mistake

You applied the wrong rule.

Flying a visual like a circling approach, assuming SID climb clearance means disregarding altitudes (spoiler: it doesn't always), following company habits that aren't actually policy/SOP.

You followed a rule - just not the right one.

4. Knowledge-Based Mistake

You didn't know, misunderstood, or guessed wrong.

Misreading charts, expecting automation to do something it didn't, making plans based on bad assumptions.

Put together errors look something like this:

In the same way Threats could either be anticipated, unexpected, or latent, errors can be related to aircraft handling, procedure, or communication.

🛑 Undesired Aircraft States

Threats and errors are normal parts of flying. But unmanaged, they're express tickets to an Undesired Aircraft State (UAS).

A UAS is when your aircraft isn't where or how you intended. Wrong configuration, wrong place, wrong everything.

Not always catastrophic, but definitely heading that way if you don't step in.

It could be as simple as flying 10kts fast or a full blown UPRT scenario. Of course sometimes one can lead to the other…

Putting it all together we get:

THE SIMPLE 3-STEP SAFETY BUFFER

✈️ Avoid. Trap. Mitigate

Let's walk through an example, climbing out of Heathrow - and dealing with some of the planet's busiest airspace.

Threat: Mid-air collision 💥

🛡️ Avoid

You brief a reduced climb rate:

"Within 2000 ft of any level-off, I'll use V/S +1500 fpm max."

Simple tweak, threat avoided before it materialises.

👀 Trap

You missed that brief detail.

Now TCAS shows traffic closing from above.

You immediately select V/S to level off.

Threat trapped before it goes critical.

🚨 Mitigate

You missed the traffic entirely and get a TCAS RA.

Flying the TCAS manoeuvre is your last line of defence - threat mitigated.

Ideally you're always operating at the "Avoid" level.

But if things slip, you can still catch them later by trapping them or mitigating them.

Personal Note: This is going to sound petty — but it bugs me when people say, “We’ll mitigate that by...”

Mitigation’s your last line of defence. If you’re already talking about it, you’ve kind of accepted the threat's going to happen.

What you really want is to avoid it. But I get it — “mitigate” sounds cool.

Still, avoiding is better. Trapping is fine. Mitigating means you’ve run out of other ideas.

I know, I know — but it is technically correct, which, let’s be honest, is the best kind of correct.

No wonder I fly an Airbus. 😂

Ahem… anyway. Moving on.

You N.U.T.A.

To be prepared for threats, we can use N.U.T.A. and stay at the "Avoid" level:

• Notice the threat (busy airspace)

• Understand the risk (potential collision)

• Think Ahead (I'll use V/S)

Or perhaps you notice the thunderstorm, understand it can make your day far more exciting than it needs to be, and think about giving it a wide berth.

There’s little point in identifying threats if you don’t talk about how to avoid them.

For errors and UAS, same principle applies - but instead of "prepared," you're focused on repair and recover.

The take away point here is the descent towards an incident or accident can be stopped at anytime by applying good CRM/TEM principles.